It is the start of the festival season at a corrugated box unit in Faridabad. The line is running day and night. Sweet boxes, gift cartons, and plain cartons for the traders in Delhi, Gurgaon and Noida. The owner has bought paper early, at a good price, and is pleased with himself.
Then the orders change shape. A large garment exporter, a customer for years, sends a smaller order and says nothing more. A trader in Noida who usually reorders every month goes quiet. The owner assumes everyone is busy before the festival. In fact the trader is sitting on a large stock of a carton size that online sellers in his area have stopped using. Meanwhile, a trader in Gurgaon is phoning for mailer boxes the factory has not made enough of, and buys from another maker instead.
After the festival, the paper mills raise prices. The owner needs paper in a hurry for a late order and pays the highest rate. Payments from traders come in slowly, and the Noida trader asks whether the old carton stock can be taken back. Looking at the season, the owner sees good production and good dispatch. He cannot see where his goods actually went, or why a busy season left so little money behind.