It is February at a cutting wheel and welding rod company near Ahmedabad. The year-end rush has started. Distributors in Rajkot, Ludhiana and Coimbatore take large lots before March. The billing chart climbs. The team is sure this year will close above target.
In Rajkot, the picture is mixed. A large fabrication unit that used to reorder every few weeks has not ordered for a while. Its purchase desk tried a cheaper disc. The operators grumbled, but the factory has not switched back yet. Meanwhile, the distributor's godown still holds welding rods from before the last monsoon. A small workshop bought some, got poor welds, and has started asking for another brand.
In April, the distributor's orders drop sharply. He says the new financial year always starts slow. That is partly true. But the large unit is gone, the small workshop is gone, and the rods are still in the godown. The company finds out at a review many months later that its Rajkot business has shrunk, and nobody can say exactly when it started.