A medicine company in Baddi makes antibiotics, cough syrups, fever tablets and a small range of ointments. Most of its sales are in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In the spring, the owner looks at last year's rains and tells his team to stock up early. Fever and stomach medicines go out to stockists in Gorakhpur, Patna and Darbhanga with a generous scheme.
The rains come late that year. In Gorakhpur, the stockist had taken a large load for the scheme, and his racks are full. In Darbhanga the fevers start early and the stockist there runs out of the company's fever tablets in the first week. Chemists switch to another brand. The company's area manager hears about it only when a chemist complains to the medical representative, long after the rush began.
Winter comes, and the cough syrup scheme goes out. Then, in spring, the returns start. Fever tablets from Gorakhpur, syrup from Patna, ointment that nobody asked for. The owner signs credit notes and asks his sales head why the stockists took so much. The sales head says the stockists wanted the scheme. Both are right. Nobody had seen the goods sitting while there was still time to do something.